What state results say about national politics

It is claimed the emerging electoral trends from five states that held assembly elections are going to be a decisive factor in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; in simple terms, we are told the assembly elections ought to be seen as a mood of the nation. A section of media and political commentators highlight the impressive performance of the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh to argue that the party under the leadership of Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi is going to win the 2024 election with ease.

- Hilal Ahmed

This line of argument is plausible. The BJP’s tremendous achievement cannot be underestimated. The party did not allow the Congress to take advantage of anti-incumbency in MP. The figure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was over-emphasised in such a way that the contest eventually acquired a national character. These factors obviously create an impression that the BJP will not have any difficulty in 2024.

This interpretation of the results, however, suffers from two serious problems. First, it is unable to explain the nature of BJP’s electoral professionalism. The BJP relied heavily on PM Modi’s image to expand the scope of the electoral discourse. Yet, the party did not ignore state-level specificities. This grassroots-based electoral strategy helped the party to attract voters. The BJP establishment is fully aware of the fact that it has to invent a completely different electoral strategy in 2024. Second, this interpretation also underplays the Congress’s aggressive campaign and its remarkable performance in Telangana. The party has made an important political investment in the notion of social justice, especially after the successful Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY). This new kind of social politics is certainly going to play a role in the future.