Study warns of intense, more frequent cyclones

NEAR INDIA'S PENINSULAR COAST

- Jayashree Nandi

A new paper has found that low-latitude cyclones or cyclones forming in the near-equatorial region will increase in frequency and intensity in coming years, during a favourable phase of a Pacific climate phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). For the North Indian Ocean region, this means more cyclones forming closer to India's Peninsular coast.

The paper published in Nature Communications on Monday titled "Pacific Decadal Oscillation Causes Fewer Near-Equatorial Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean" by researchers from the Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, New York University Abu Dhabi and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) found that there was a 43% decline in the frequency of low-latitude cyclones (originating between 5°N and 11'N) during the post-monsoon season in the north Indian Ocean in recent decades (1981-2010) compared to earlier decades (1951-1980). But now it's set to increase again because of a combination of ocean warming and PDO being in a favourable position.