Lessons from the polls for BJP and Congress

THE LANDSLIDE VICTORIES OF THE INCUMBENTS IN BOTH STATES INDICATE THAT THE REGIONAL DIVIDES AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FAULT LINES HAVE BEEN FLATTENED

- Rahul Verma

The assembly elections results in Jharkhand and Maharashtra have something to rejoice for India's two main national alliances - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led INDIA bloc. Both Jharkhand and Maharashtra delivered decisive verdicts in favour of incumbent parties, and the Opposition alliances in both states were crushed. In that sense, the outcomes are similar to the results of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections - the BJP won the former and the INDIA bloc the latter.

What explains the victory of the incumbents in Jharkhand and Maharashtra? The incumbent chief ministers (CMs) were popular, of course, but their popularity alone could not have delivered such sweeping wins. One common factor in both states, which analysts are likely to highlight, is that the Ladki Bahin Yojana in Maharashtra and Maiya Samman Yojana in Jharkhand rallied women voters in favour of the incumbents. The Axis My-India exit poll that predicted landslide victories for the NDA in Maharashtra and INDIA bloc in Jharkhand did note a significant support for the incumbent among women voters.

Did women voters alone turn the table in favour of the incumbent? Why did the Opposition campaign in both states fail to gain traction? After all, the NDA in Jharkhand and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra had compelling narratives: In Jharkhand, the BJP attempted to mobilise voters on the issue of infiltration by illegal migrants while the MVA focussed mainly on issues of social justice. The Opposition in both states highlighted the economic distress, unemployment, corruption and mis-governance of the incumbent in their campaigns.