Home advantage amplifies India's win chances beyond the numbers

At home, they were not unbeatable, and IPL has levelled the field somewhat. But 2011 reminds us India can overcome odds

- Somshuvra Laha

In the first nine editions between 1975 and 2007, no team won the World Cup at home. That changed on April 2, 2011 when MS Dhoni hit the winning six at the Wankhede Stadium. The next two ODI World Cups were also won by home teams, Australia in 2015 and England in 2019. It naturally boosts the possibility of India too winning the upcoming edition, though data doesn't back it.

Unquantifiable factors like supporters, familiarity of venues and weather are some of the reasons: why home advantage works in team sports. None of those worked for England in the first three editions of the World Cup, in a format they created, played more than the other teams and knew best how to exploit conditions in the English summer. Conversely, we won't know what would have happened had West Indies hosted the 1983 World Cup.

A more perceptible factor these days is the home form of the hosts in the ODI cycle preceding a World Cup. And it has found some correlation as well. Like in 2019 when England won their first World Cup after topping that cycle with a home win-loss ratio of 3.55.

In 2015, Australia won after ending a four-year cycle with a home win-loss ratio of 2.77-joint best with India among the Test teams.