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After early onset and surge, weather models forecast slowdown in monsoon advancement

Hindustan Times

|

May 27, 2025

MONSOON MAY TAKE A LONGER HIATUS' AFTER JUNE 2, ACCORDING TO EXPERTS

- Jayashree Nandi

The progress of the southwest monsoon, which not only arrived eight days early in Kerala, but also covered large parts of the country including Mumbai on the west coast and almost all of northeast and peninsular India within two days, is likely to slow down after June 2, various models have indicated.

Basing his comments on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' model, climate scientist and former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, M Rajeevan said on X that an early onset and rapid progress isn't "uncommon", and that the "active monsoon conditions" will continue till June 2, after which he expects a "longer hiatus".

His reference is to the lull or gap seen in the monsoon after the initial rush of its arrival and onset across much of India.

"In recent years, we see longer hiatus days mainly due to mid-latitude dry air intrusions. Farmers should be advised suitably. These are early indications from the models," he added, although he caveated his comments by pointing to "uncertainties".

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