Lines between haves, have-nots and want-mores harden as markets slide

Is the market in a bear grip? Veteran investor Krishna Jha thinks so.

- Charles Assisi

The veteran investor made his first fortune when he exited a technology company in his younger days. Since then, he has lived through bull and bear cycles. He now knows soaring markets and gut-wrenching crashes and promises of "this time is different" never hold true. He has also learnt that a bull run, fuelled by excess liquidity and overconfidence inevitably, collapses under its own weight. And yet, investors who piled into the market over the last three years don't see it coming. He has the humility to acknowledge he didn't know either when it would hit either.

A year ago, the Nifty was at record highs. Retail investors were flooding into the market, convinced they had cracked the code. It was easy: SIPs in mutual funds, some exposure to high-growth stocks, maybe even dabbling in options trading. They believed in the India story. Then the tide turned. Today, the Nifty is back where it was a year ago. Portfolios have been erased, savings wiped out and millions have lost their shirts.

Jha isn't surprised. "They've only seen a bull run," he says, shaking his head. "They don't know what a bear cycle feels like." He isn't trying to be dramatic. He has seen it earlier. Since touching a high of 85,978.25 on September 27, 2024, the benchmark BSE Sensex is down 14.86%, and closed at 73,198.1 on Friday.

The correction and Jha's analysis are reflected in a number in a report that has landed like a thunderclap in India's investment circles, the Blume Ventures Indus Valley Report 2025. According to it, SIP cancellations surged from 52% to 64% in under a year. People who had believed that compounding would make them rich were quietly withdrawing what was left of their money.

And what of people? How do they feel?