Delivery Claims Versus Identity Politics in Delhi

Ten years after winning office, the AAP faces voter fatigue and a BJP eager to repeat its general election performance

- Neelanjan Sircar

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is attempting a hat-trick of wins in Delhi, where assembly elections will take place on February 5. After sweeping the 2015 and 2020 state elections, it is seeking to retain office for a third consecutive time. If the last two state elections (I use state and Union territory (UT) interchangeably in this piece) are any indication, this isn't much of a contest—with the AAP winning more than 60 of Delhi's 70 seats in each election. But a lot has changed since then. The Delhi riots that took place soon after the 2020 election hurt the party's performance in Muslim-dominated areas. And, of course, there has been the jailing of key AAP leaders and AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal in the lead-up to the 2024 national election. Finally, 10 years in office is a long time, and there is always the question of voter fatigue with any party. Meanwhile, the AAP's chief rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), did well in Delhi in the 2024 national election, even while facing heavy losses in many other parts of northern India.

However, the BJP faces major challenges heading into the state election. The BJP's vote share has consistently stayed below 40% in Delhi's state elections (unlike national elections). In the last three elections (2013, 2015, and 2020), the BJP's average seat-wise vote share was 38.8%, 32.6%, and 39.9%. But this is quite different from the national election; in 2014, the BJP's average vote share in Delhi (across Assembly segments) of 45.9% and, in 2019, this spiked to 55.8%, falling to 54.35% in 2024.