Incompatible models, infra shortage: Why IMD struggles with the weather

That the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is far from reliable in predicting rain is well-known.

- Abhishek Jha

A working paper on weather forecast shows poorer countries are worse off than their richer peers in short-term predictions of temperature and rain.

(RAJ K RAJ / HT PHOTO)

Why this inaccuracy exists is something more perplexing. A recent paper by two environmental economists suggests that there are both non-material and material factors behind IMD's weather struggles: existing weather models find it hard to simulate tropical weather and the lack of comparable infrastructure with richer countries adds to this disadvantage.

A newer version of the working paper called "Global inequalities in weather forecasts" by environmental economists Manuel Linsenmeier and Jeffrey Schrader was uploaded on the online repository SocArXiv on November 25. The paper is under review and may undergo changes before a final version is published.

The paper shows that relatively poorer countries such as India do better than richer countries in at least the seasonal forecasts of temperature. The bad news is that poorer countries are worse off than their richer peers in short-term forecasts of both temperature and rain, which matter more for extreme weather events as well as public perception of weather forecasting.

The paper also studied forecasts different from those made by local agencies (more on this later). However, it is worth engaging with the paper beyond its headline findings to understand how forecasts can be improved in countries such as India.