Pakistan, a year after Operation Sindoor

Its domestic crisis — of the economy, internal security and domestic political balance — has not abated and has even likely intensified. But many in Islamabad believe the current phase as a geopolitical sweet spot

- TCA Raghavan

The package of measures adopted against Pakistan after last year’s terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, were collectively the strongest deployed against provocation by that country in recent times. Attention has mostly focused on the kinetic measures taken — Operation Sindoor in brief. In Pakistan, however, possibly a greater significance is attached to India placing the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance given the country’s many anxieties, both as an agricultural economy and as a lower riparian State.

These diplomatic-cum-military measures were far weightier than those taken after previous terrorist outrages, such as the attack on Parliament in December 2001 or the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008. Therefore, how should we evaluate the effectiveness of the steps taken after the Pahalgam attack?

The message sent to Pakistan was twofold. The first is that a strong military response will follow terrorist transgressions and apprehensions of a possible escalation won't be a restraining factor. Second, that no aspect of India-Pakistan relations would be ring-fenced from an adversarial dynamic: The Indus Waters Treaty that had been insulated from the vagaries of the relationship even during conditions of war, was placed in abeyance to underscore this very point.