Defence and offence on West Asia chessboard

The Saudi-Pak defence pact reflects broader geopolitical shifts rather than a fundamental anti-Indian alignment. India should adopt strategic patience, enhanced defensive preparedness and a proactive diplomatic agenda

- Ausaf Sayeed

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on September 17, 2025, marks a significant turning point in West Asian geopolitics, formalising a decades-long strategic alignment and creating new ripples that could alter regional security architectures and challenge India’s strategic positioning.

This unprecedented pact establishes a Nato-style mutual defence commitment, declaring that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”. While building upon nearly eight decades of deep-seated bilateral cooperation, this provision legally obligates mutual support in the event of an attack, encompassing joint military responses, enhanced intelligence sharing, and coordinated deterrence strategies, buttressed by Saudi investments of up to $15 billion in Pakistan's defence-industrial complex.

While not explicitly stated, the ambiguous “comprehensive defensive” scope of the agreement has fuelled interpretations of an implicit nuclear dimension. The theory posits that Pakistan’s arsenal, estimated at 170 warheads, could indirectly extend anuclear deterrent to Saudi interests without physical transfers. This arrangement would navigate nonproliferation norms and avoid direct violations of US nonproliferation laws, leveraging Pakistan's status as a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its rejection of a no-first-use policy. However, this nuclear umbrella theory is contested. Sceptics argue the pact is more a political signal of solidarity than an unconditional war guarantee, noting that Pakistan's nuclear doctrine remains overwhelmingly India-centric and its command-and-control structures are unlikely to be subordinated to foreign interests.