Curious case of Pakistan’s geopolitical rehabilitation

Pakistan had been sidelined by the West and the US after the Taliban's return to Afghanistan in late 2021. It has reemerged on the global geopolitical stage now, and is in a strategic sweet spot. Pakistan army chief Asim Munir recently made his third visit to Washington, along with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and met US President Donald Trump at the White House. Although the exact US-Pakistan plans for South Asia are unclear, Trump’s outreach to Pakistan has firmly repositioned Islamabad at the core of regional geopolitics. That Pakistan-US relations are deepening in the wake of an India-Pakistan military conflict —which also highlighted Pakistan’s dependence on China for defence — underscores the complex play behind Pakistan’s current geopolitical positioning.

- Happymon Jacob

The American rehabilitation of Pakistan appears to have triggered a series of regional developments. Islamabad is strengthening its relationship with China, reengaging the US, cultivating Saudi Arabia, warming up to Russia, bringing Turkey into play, and managing Afghanistan and Iran.

Pakistan, like India, is also following a policy ofmulti-alignment even though it hasa very different philosophy guiding this. India manages its relationships with major partners based on their own merits, while Pakistan's multi-alignment primarily aims to useits partnerships to counter India. In other words, India is the focus behind Pakistan's multi-alignment strategy whereas Pakistan playsa limited role in India’s policies of multi-alignment. True to its ability to exploit geopolitical uncertainty and chaos, Pakistan has positioned itself comfortably between twoemerging poles that may soon be in competition with each other. These poles were engaged ina growing rivalry until Trump re-entered the scene earlier this year, shifting the focus away from the structural competition with China and the rivalry with Russia. Today, while India finds itself in a disadvantageous position due to Trump's new approach to China and Russia, one of the States that has benefited most from the US repositioning is Pakistan. American hyphenation of India and Pakistan is anoldstory; Trump’s policies havea zero-sum effect in South Asia where India’s loss appears tobe Pakistan’s gain.

Pakistan's current regional strategy appears tobe one of hedging, freeriding, and seeking to actasan intermediary among various regional factions. Some of thisis the result of careful calculation, while the rest is driven by broader geopolitical circumstances.