China announces 7-10% cut in GHG emissions by '35; experts call it modest

China on Wednesday announced an update to its carbon dioxide emissions reduction target (or Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC) at the United Nations Climate Summit, positioning itself as the global leader in tackling the climate crisis ahead of the big UN Climate meeting (COP30) in Brazil, although experts adjudged the NDC itself as extremely modest.

- Jayashree Nandi

On Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China, world’s largest polluter in terms of CO2 emissions, will cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10% from peak levels and increase non-fossil fuel energy consumption to over 30% of the total energy consumption by 2035. He also called on countries to adopt low-carbon growth.

China will also expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts. Xi added that the total forest stock volume will surpass 24 billion cubic metres. China's NDC suggests emissions will peak before 2035, although some assessments show them as having already peaked.

Experts said the NDC, while not being in alignment with the steep cuts required to meet the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement, still has major significance because of China's posturing in climate action. India is yet to update its NDC, and it is not clear whether it will do so before COP30, although the general expectation is that it will.

“China’s updated NDC is an important step forward, one that can drive a deeper shift towards a cleaner, more sustainable energy future. China's transition is moving into deep water, where difficult policy choices must be made just as national emissions are poised to peak. What matters now is preparing for the post-peak era so any plateau is short and decline becomes structural. China's new NDC won't solve everything, but it signals commitment and that signal is what unlocks capital and speeds a shorter plateau and faster structural decline in emissions,” said Ember’s senior analyst for China, Muyi Yang.