Why Israel failed to prevent October 7 attack

The Israeli liberal daily Haaretz said the agency had 'correctly assessed' the serious threat posed by Hamas but did not use its knowledge to warn the government of the danger Israel faced in the days or hours before the attack

- Michael Jansen

Israeli investigations into the October 7th, 2023, attack on southern Israel have revealed how its and domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet, and army failed to identify Hamas' intentions and pre-empt the raid that killed 1,200 and precipitated all-out retaliatory war on Gaza. At the end of last month, the army admitted its failure "in its mission to protect Israeli civilians" while last week Shin Bet published the results of its probe.

Shin Bet admitted failure to predict and prevent the Hamas attack. The Israeli liberal daily Haaretz said the agency had "correctly assessed" the serious threat posed by Hamas but did not use its knowledge to warn the government of the danger Israel faced in the days or hours before the attack. However, Haaretz reported that in May 2023, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar told Netanyahu that Hamas was a "challenge at (Israel's) doorstep" and it should prepare for "an opening blow." Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu dismissed this warning and said Israel had deterred Hamas with "a strong balance of fear." Netanyahu prioritised his policy of allowing funds from abroad to flow to Hamas for payment of salaries to Gaza's civil servants. This policy was meant to strengthen Hamas in its competition with Fatah in the West Bank and divide Palestinians.

Both Shin Bet and the army were alerted to 2018 and 2022 Hamas plans for attacks but did not follow through in 2023 by looking for signs such an operation was nearing launch. Information did not reach senior Shin Bet and army officers who did not coordinate and share assessments. Shin Bet agents in Gaza itself did not inform Israel of preparations for the attack. Despite the scandal, Shin Bet boss Bar has declared he has no intention of resigning and, according to Haaretz, would resist Netanyahu's calls for his dismissal.