US to lead 50 per cent surge in global LNG capacity by 2030

Between 2025 and 2030, new LNG export capacity is expected to grow by 300 billion cubic metres per year, a 50 per cent jump, according to the IEA, with around 45 per cent coming from the US, the world's biggest exporter of the fuel.

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Supply is set to outpace demand growth over the same period, squeezing producers' margins and offering consumers in Europe and Asia some relief.

Investors will keep a razor-sharp focus on signs of swelling oil inventories next year after crude prices fell nearly 20 per cent in 2025 to about $60 a barrel on fears of significant oversupply.

Global oil output has surged over the past year. The US - the world's biggest oil producer - ramped up production, as did Canada and Brazil, while the organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, reversed years of cuts.

The International Energy Agency forecasts supply will exceed demand in 2026 by a head-spinning 3.85 million barrels per day (bpd), the equivalent of around 48 of global demand.

Yet OPEC analysts see a largely balanced market next year, creating one of the sharpest forecast divergences in decades.

Uncertainty about the supply-demand balance has been compounded by China's large-scale crude stockpiling since April. Traders have limited visibility about these volumes, though they are estimated to be sizeable at roughly 500,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations.

Ultimately, the IEA looks more likely to be proven correct.