Trump’s first-year economy and rising public anxiety

As we kick off a new year, it’s a good time to assess President Donald Trump’s performance on the economy.

- Steven Hill, Tribune News Service

He came into office a year ago with his “America First” philosophy. He promised to bring down the cost of living, create jobs, reduce illegal immigration at the border, enact big corporate and income tax cuts, and more. So, how is he doing on his campaign promises? Below are specific economic indicators, which reveal a split-screen reality of positives and negatives. Most ominously, Americans are turning increasingly gloomy over their own economic futures.Robust economic growth: The White House can brag about the US economy expanding in the third quarter of 2025 at a robust annual clip of 4.38, the fastest pace in two years, driven primarily by strong consumer and government spending.

Global tariffs: Pre-Trump tariff rates were on average a mere 2.48, but now ring the bell at an average 16.88, the highest since 1935. While destabilising trade relationships with allies and competitors worldwide, the tariffs have also increased federal revenue by around $200 billion in 2025. That is providing a significant new source of government income, which the US will need to offset large increases in the federal debt arising from huge tax cuts for wealthy Americans in Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, which was passed last July.

However, this fiscal windfall comes at a cost to consumers. If we break it down, the additional revenue amounts to approximately $1,600 per household annually that consumers had to pay in tariff-induced higher prices, illustrating the tension between government gains and household costs.

Inflation: Inflation from the tariffs has not increased as much as experts warned. But the inflation numbers may be unreliable because the 43-day government shutdown - the longest in US history - disrupted data collection, muddying the picture. It's possible that we have not yet seen the full impact of the tariffs on the cost of living.