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Eurozone long-dated yields fall, inflation below ECB target

Gulf Today

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June 04, 2025

Long-dated Eurozone government bond yields fell on Tuesday, as slowing Eurozone inflation buoyed expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut this week, while a strong Japanese auction earlier lifted sentiment across big bond markets.

Eurozone long-dated yields fall, inflation below ECB target

German IO-year bond yields were last down 2 bps to 2.505%, having earlier hit their lowest level since May 8.

Elsewhere, Italian IO-year bond yields fell to three-month lows at around 3.48%, as did French yields, which touched 3.15%.

Data on Tuesday showed consumer price inflation in the 20 countries sharing the euro slowed to 1.9% in May from 2.2% a month earlier, dipping below the ECB’s 2% target.

The figures came in below expectations for 2.0% on a fall in energy prices and a sharp decline in services inflation.

The data bolsters bets on a rate cut at the ECB's next meeting on Thursday.

Traders are currently placing a 95% chance on a 25-bp cut on Thursday, which would be its eighth cut since last June to the bank rate, currently at 2.25%.

"...like many among us the ECB is trying to make sense of the trade negotiations with the US - where do we land, what does it mean for inflation and growth?" said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale. He said that bonds have been in limbo amid few answers, a data-dependent outlook and no pre-commitment from the central bank. In addition, a stronger euro helps offset some of the impact of higher inflation on the economy.

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