Gauging AI impact on growth, job losses

While offering a starting framework, two Niti Aayog reports overlook the potential of AI as a digital public infrastructure good

- MADAN PADAKI ARUP ROYCHOUDHURY

AHEAD OF THE Global AI Summit, to be hosted by New Delhi in February 2026, Niti Aayog has released three detailed reports on how the frontier technology can be used to advance Viksit Bharat goals.

These reports set the stage for India’s positioning ahead of the flagship event.

The first report, titled Al for Viksit Bharat: The Opportunity for Accelerated Economic Growth, was released in mid-September. Drafted by McKinsey & Co, it argued how AI could potentially narrow the gap between India’s current real GDP growth (5.7% as per the report) and the aspirational 8% under Viksit Bharat. By automating routine tasks, enabling smarter decision-making, and driving innovation particularly in manufacturing, financial services, pharma, and automotive, the report sees Al boosting GDP by $500-600 billion through productivity improvements (for manufacturing and banking) and another $280-475 billion through AI-driven R&D (in pharma and auto).

The other two reports were released in October. Roadmap for Job Creation in the Al Economy, drafted by Nasscom and Boston Consulting Group, examines Al’s impact on the tech sector: by 2031, India could lose 1.5-2 million jobs to Al, but create 4 million opportunities. It says 60% of formal jobs in IT and BPO are susceptible to automation. It proposes an India AI Talent Mission to embed Al in education starting from schools, become a Al talent magnet through attractive visas and research funding, build reskilling programmes, create open-source AI commons, and operationalise a national compute infrastructure.