Tsunami of Chinese cargo looks more like a swell

LET'S GO AHEAD and dispel this myth: US importers will scramble to bring in goods from China and other countries before President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on tariffs expires, and a surge of cargo will overwhelm the logistics supply chain, causing freight rates to skyrocket.

- Bloomberg

Certainly, front-loading similar to what caused April port imports to spike will take place. But it won't be a tsunami of goods. If shippers accelerate peak-season orders this year, that demand will only take the place of much of the summer seasonal merchandise that was already pulled forward. The feared tsunami may turn out to be more of a minor swell.

Besides, the short-lived dip of ocean shipments during May has left the US ports in great shape to handle any bump of volume resulting from the peak shipping season being pulled forward. The railroads handled a boom of container imports this year exceptionally well and have no related congestion problems. (CSX Corp. is struggling a bit, but mostly from a key bridge construction project and lingering effects from storm damage.) The trucking industry is still suffering from overcapacity and would welcome such a demand surge.