RBI offers some signals in longer term growth, inflation guidance

IN ITS RATE pause, the RBI seems to have spelt out multiple messages.

- SIDDHARTH UPASANI & ANIL SASI

While the repo rate remains unchanged at 5.5 per cent after the unanimous decision by all members of the Monetary Policy Committee to hold while retaining the stance at neutral, the two important leading indicators offered by the central bank are in its growth and inflation projections, that too at the far end of its guidance spectrum.

The RBI lowered the retail inflation forecast from 3.7 per cent on average for this fiscal to 3.1 per cent along broadly expected lines. However, there is now a new number for the first quarter of the next financial year — Q1 2026-27 — at 4.9 per cent. This is sharply trending upwards.