Jury Is Out On Govt's Export Optimism

Experts divided on claim of crossing last year's figure

- Mukesh Jagota

While US tariffs may shave off as much as $37 billion from merchandise exports, India's overall shipments—goods and services combined—might still marginally exceed last year's level in 2025-26, some experts said. However, the pace of growth will likely slow.

"Combining goods and services, total exports are set to increase from $824.9 billion in FY25 to $839.9 billion in FY26—a 1.8% overall gain despite heavy US headwinds," founder of Global Trade Research Initiative Ajay Srivastava said. Last financial year India's overall exports had grown at 6.01%.

This analysis supports commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal's view that despite all the challenges the country's overall exports will surpass last year's level.

This underscores India's diversification, resilience, and growing reliance on services, proving that while American tariffs hurt, India's export engine is slowed—not derailed, Srivastava said.