A bitter pill, not a pinch of salt

THE RULE OF THE GAME FOR THESE DEALS IS TO GIVE MUCH MORE THAN WHAT WE GET

- AMITENDU PALIT

HOW CLOSE ARE India and the US to cutting a trade deal? Many feel a deal is just round the corner, especially after the latest US sanctions on Russia and the burst of deals signed by President Donald Trump during his visit to Southeast Asia.

India is one of the few countries that are yet to sign a deal with the US, despite negotiations having started much earlier than most. Both countries committed to a “fall 2025” deadline for getting to a deal in a joint statement they issued in February. As time passes, doubts grow regarding the feasibility of the deadline.

The Russian sanctions can be an enabler for the deal. These make it difficult for Indian oil refiners to source crude oil from Russia. The difficulty produces convenient optics for both sides. The US can highlight that the sanctions will force India to stop buying Russian oil in the foreseeable future. India can mention the sanctions as an unavoidable factor, forcing it to search other sources of crude and diversify, again in the foreseeable future. The “foreseeable future” becomes the key factor based on which both the US and India can put aside the obstacle of Russian oil in moving to a deal.