Private credit seen rising 35% this year, but flat without SP deal

THE VALUE OF private credit deals is expected to rise about 35% year-on-year (yo-y) to nearly $13 billion in 2025, but the growth is largely skewed by a single large transaction by the Shapoorji Pallonji (SP) Group, with underlying market expansion remaining muted once that deal is excluded.

- RAGHAVENDRA KAMATH

The market closed 2024 with deals worth $9.63 billion, while 2025 volumes have been boosted by a $3.14 billion SP Group refinancing in the first half, which alone accounted for about 35% of H1 volumes. Adjusting for this transaction, total deal value for the year stands at around $9.86 billion, implying growth of just about 2% over last year.

The first half of 2025 saw deals worth about $9 billion, supported by a handful of largeticket transactions, while activity slowed sharply in the second half amid fewer closures.“Based on deals announced and in the pipeline, we expect overall private credit volumes in 2025 to be around $13 billion, though the final number will depend on closures in December," Vishal Bansal, partner, debt and special situations at EY India, said.

Private credit volumes fell 74% quarter-on-quarter to $1.82 billion in the third quarter of 2025 after a record second quarter, though they were up 20.2% yo-y, according to Octus. For the first nine months of 2025, volumes totalled $11.5 billion across 166 deals, compared with $7.7 billion from 150 deals in the same period last year.

Large refinancings continued to prop up headline numbers. In August, GMR Airports privately placed $674 million of nonconvertible debentures (NCD) to refinance existing debt at a lower cost, while GMR Energy issued $183 million of five-year senior secured NCDs to investors are increasingly comfortable with larger ticket sizes and syndicated structures. "Large deals are episodic, but those completed this year have given confidence to global investors that large transactions can be executed in India," Ankur Jain, managing director, private credit strategies at InCred Alternative Investments, said.