Don't bank on a May poll but Rishi might see it as a safer bet

MIGHT Rishi Sunak's ongoing political Golgotha swing the likelihood of an early election? Two answers suggest themselves in the wake of the "Jenrick moment" - the abrupt resignation of Sunak's immigration minister over the delivery (or not) of the "Rwanda plan" and a press conference at which a plainly furious PM pointed out to his party's Right wing that the only way to keep the deal intact was to deliver it without threatening to leave the European Convention on Human Rights.

- Anne MckElvoy

The explosive resignation of a former ally is a warning that Sunak's political management of his ministerial ranks is faltering, from an already low base. To be forced into sacking a home secretary (Suella Braverman) one month and lose an immigration minister the next brings home to even casual consumers of Westminster dramas that the Government's main enemy appears to be itself.

In raw electoral terms, with a 20-point Labour lead hardening since the autumn return, Sunak's strategists have two options. The first is to string this out as long as possible, with the aim of getting Rwanda flights off the ground to show that a policy intended to deter small-boats arrivals had worked in principle- and press home the challenge to Labour about its foggy intentions on immigration.

But a number of factors now speak for the more dramatic option of an early (i.e. May) election, aligned with local elections. The first is that Sunak's inflation-reducing pledge has been met, but there is not much else that is likely to benefit from a long game. Some advisers will implore him to stand his ground.