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Could Nigel Farage be on course to mastermind the biggest 'political earthquake' in more than 100 years?

Daily Express

|

May 03, 2025

NIGEL Farage has often been accused of hyperbole over his many audacious political claims.

Some do not, or have not yet, come true.

But others do, notably the biggest of them all — Brexit.

So it is worth taking note when the Reform UK leader says two-party politics in Britain is dead.

If he is correct, then Mr Farage is about to mastermind the biggest political upheaval in more than 100 years, since Labour displaced the old Liberal Party in 1922.

Sarah Pochin’s dramatic by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby also confirms another of one of his repeated claims — the party will cause a “political earthquake”.

Reform’s stunning victory over Labour, by just six votes, is the latest shockwave following last summer’s general election in which it won five seats. With Reform MP Rupert Lowe’s ousting aside, the party’s rise appears unstoppable.

Former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns is now the Greater Lincolnshire Mayor and Reform has surged in local councils across England. From Durham to Kent and Northumberland to Staffordshire, the Right-wing party is on the march.

Polling mastermind Sir John Curtice said the results “quite clearly” prove that Reform is a threat both to Labour and the Tories.

He said that the old Left-Right divide no longer explained British politics and stressed that cultural issues were now a key factor.

"Politics is no longer one-dimensional," he added.

It is not just Reform coming to the party, so to speak, as the Lib Dems and the Greens are also seeing surges in support.

Recent polls continue to have Reform on top with 26%, Labour in second on 24% and the Tories in third place at 22%.

Sir Ed Davey’s party is in fourth on 14% with the Greens in fifth on 10%. A recent mega-poll showed Reform is on course to emerge as the third-largest party in a general election.

Analysis, by the think-tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72 with the Lib Dems securing 58 seats, the SNP 37 and the Green Party on two.

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