What US tariff moves could mean for South African farmers?

SOUTH Africa's agricultural sector is no stranger to external shocks, but its future may hinge on decisions made thousands of kilometres away. With recent tariff moves by the United States, alongside growing uncertainty over South Africa's continued participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), producers are bracing for potential fallout that could reshape not only export earnings but the country's broader economy.

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AGOA has long been a strategic advantage for local exporters, allowing duty-free access for agricultural products like citrus, avocados, nuts, and wine. But with the US's recent imposition of a 10% blanket tariff on all goods - and a looming 30% tariff - that advantage is at risk. While the headlines focus on big exporters, the longer-term impact may hit smallholder farmers the hardest.

AGOA uncertainty threatens hard-won progress

Nkosinathi Mahlangu, Momentum's youth employment portfolio head, is concerned about how the shifting trade landscape could unravel years of hard-won inclusion in the agricultural sector.

"The potential exclusion of South Africa takes away the duty-free access that we enjoy when we export produce and products to the US. This is one of the many setbacks that we are likely to suffer," says Mahlangu.

"SA agriculture has been supplying products like citrus fruits, nuts, and avocados to the US market easily through AGOA. The potential exclusion would mean farmers need to break into new markets and compete with already existing players in the space, which will affect pricing and shipping costs, and play catch-up with competitors. Potential job losses could be on the cards, as a result."

While AGOA uncertainty creates ripple effects for established exporters, the tremors are even more destabilising for farmers trying to break into commercial supply chains for the first time. Many of these producers are based in rural areas, often women-led, and are still building the infrastructure, networks, and scale needed to succeed.