South Africa's agricultural future: Innovation or missed opportunity?

AGRICULTURE in South Africa sits at a crossroads.

- THULASIZWE MKHABELA

PROJECTED Crop Yield Index (2025=100). Yields rise significantly under high R&D investment compared to business-as-usual. Figure 2: Projected Food Import Dependency (% of demand). Without innovation, dependency rises. With climate-smart practices and inclusive innovation, imports decline.

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It remains the backbone of rural livelihoods, food security, and exports, yet faces mounting pressures - climate variability, declining soil health, global market volatility, and persistent inequalities in land ownership and productivity.

The question we must urgently ask is: what does the future hold, and how can we steer agriculture towards resilience and inclusive growth? As climate pressures continue to escalate and food demand surges, South Africa's agricultural sector stands at a critical juncture.

Recent modelling indicates that strategic investments in innovation paired with inclusive policies have the potential to transform farming into a catalyst for economic prosperity.

Conversely, without decisive action, the country risks deepening its dependency on external resources, which could undermine agriculture's long-term sustainability. The choices made today will define the future of this vital sector. To answer this, policymakers are increasingly turning to strategic foresight tools such as the International Futures (IFs) model. IFs is a global, integrated forecasting system that draws on historical data and projects trends across demographics, economics, health, governance, and the environment.