PHL export data to start reflecting tariff impact after 1* half boosted by frontloaded shipments

THE GROWTH in Philippine exports seen in the first half could start slowing down beginning in early August after the 19% US reciprocal tariff took effect, an analyst said.

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Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said there was some frontloading of exports in recent months to avoid the US tariffs.

“But once the US tariffs become effective on Aug. 7, this could slow exports to the US by many countries,” he said via Viber.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority indicate that exports grew 13.2% in the first half to $41.24 billion.

Of the total, 16%, or $6.598 billion, was accounted for by the US. US shipments rose 13.2% from a year earlier.

In a recent trade forecast, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said that a surge of imports in the US ahead of widely anticipated tariff hikes contributed to the upward revision to the projections for 2025.

Starting Aug. 8, the WTO projects world merchandise trade to grow 0.9% in 2025, up from the -0.2% projected in April.

“Global trade has shown resilience in the face of persistent shocks, including recent tariff hikes. Frontloaded imports and improved macroeconomic conditions have provided a modest lift to the 2025 outlook,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

“However, the full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding. The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment, and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment,” she added.

For next year, the WTO projects a 1.8% increase in world trade.

Despite the temporary boost of frontloading and more favorable global macroeconomic outlook on trade, the WTO still expects recent tariff changes to have an overall negative impact.