Beyond 100% tariffs: From risk to resilient trade

The Executive Order issued on July 31 further modified the US reciprocal tariffs and imposed a more uniform tariff at 19% to 20% for six of the 10 ASEAN countries: the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

- RAFAELITA MERCADO-ALDABA

Laos and Myanmar have been slapped with the highest tariffs at 40%, while Brunei’s is 25%. In contrast, the April “Liberation Day” tariffs were more widely dispersed, ranging from 17% to 49%, with the Philippines having one of the lowest US tariffs following Singapore at 10%.

In terms of export performance of the five ASEAN countries, the Philippines had the smallest exports, valued at $73 billion in 2024. Vietnam was the largest with total exports amounting to $406 billion, followed by Malaysia ($330 billion) and Thailand ($301 billion).

In assessing trade risks arising from the reciprocal tariffs, one factor to consider is the country’s level of dependence on the US market — the higher the dependence, the more vulnerable the country is. Among the five countries, Vietnam is the largest exporter to the US, valued at $143 billion. Vietnam’s exports to the US accounted for 35% of its global exports, led by electronics (data processing machines, communication apparatus), furniture, and footwear.

A far second is Thailand, with US exports amounting to $66 billion representing 22% of its global trade. Its export mix is dominated by automotive parts, electronics, and transmission equipment.

For the Philippines, the US is the destination of 20% of its exports. Though small in terms of absolute value ($14 billion), these are largely concentrated in electronics such as semiconductor media, storage devices, and ICT (information and communications technology) parts alongside coconut oil and printing machines.