Trump, Modi, Rahul & Formula 3

There's a formula of three pillars on which a successful campaign must rest. Trump has just followed it, as did Modi in 2014 and 2019, but not in 2024

- SHEKHAR GUPTA

What does Donald Trump's victory tell us about what leaders do to sweep elections, lose them, or win but sort of underwhelmingly? Think Trump now, Rahul more often than not, and Narendra Modi in June this year.

The first lesson from the spectacular Trump win is the formula of three pillars for a successful campaign. Let's say nationalism, triumphalism and cynicism. To see how it works, look at the MAGA (Make America Great Again) concept. That America deserves to be much greater than it currently is represents nationalism. That it will be made great again - harking back to some not-too-distant glorious past when America was the tops - is triumphalism. Always declare victory before the fight begins.

And if you argue that America was already great, its economy growing rapidly - having grown to almost twice the Eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) compared to about 50 per cent in 2008 - its stock markets booming, and its leadership in technology and innovation lighting up the world, I will show you what cynicism is. In electoral nationalism, my nation is never great enough until I am in charge. Then, it will be so much better.

As we jump continents and switch to India, we can see why Rahul Gandhi was devastated in 2014 and 2019, while Modi did so well. And then, why did Modi fall so short of his own expectations - and of those of the markets and pollsters - in 2024? That 240 was a disappointment for him. A victory on points was a letdown for one used to delivering quick knockouts. What brought him to that pass?