Russian crude flows may rise despite low discount

The Israel-Iran war is likely to see a surge in India's share of Russian crude in the coming months beyond the 10-month high seen in May.

- SUBHAYAN CHAKRABORTY

This comes even as discounts on Russian crude grades have shrunk to their lowest in two years, said officials.

However, they added that it will be difficult to replace liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows from Qatar and the UAE.

The threat of a choked Hormuz strait has pushed importers to contract more July-August cargoes from Russia even though tighter sanctions on the Russian fleet have pared discounts.

"We expect discounts to remain at low levels of around $2 per barrel given the demand for Russian crude. There will also be pressure from China. But Russia remains a reliable source," a refinery official said.

With the Iranian regime being sanctioned heavily by the United States, most nations do not officially deal in Iranian crude.

But China remains the largest buyer, purchasing 80-90 per cent of Iran's oil exports, which averaged 1.38-1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and early 2025.