Racing the clock on US-India tariffs

Why this window for a deal can't be missed

- Mark Linscott & Anushka Shah

Time is running out for Washington and New Delhi. On July 9, a 90-day pause on new American tariffs will expire, ending a brief truce meant to enable a limited trade deal. In April, President Donald Trump announced two steep tariffs: A 10 percent universal tariff on all imports and a 16 percent reciprocal tariff targeting Indian goods. While the United States temporarily suspended the latter to allow negotiations, that window is quickly closing.

The negotiation is unfolding in real time. The US is using tariffs as leverage; India, for its part, is signaling unusual flexibility. More than just market access is on the table—what's at stake is the future of economic cooperation between the world's largest and fifth-largest economies. A US delegation, led by Assistant United States Trade Representative Brendan Lynch, is currently in New Delhi for the next round of discussions—part of its effort to strike a deal before the 90-day pause expires. As Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick noted during US-India Strategic Partnership Forum's (USISPF) Annual Leadership Summit in Washington, "You should expect a deal between the United States and India in the not-too-distant future because I think we found a place that really works for both countries."

What makes these negotiations extraordinary is how far India has been willing to go to meet US concerns. New Delhi has put a bold offer on the table: Slashing tariffs to near zero on a wide array of non-agricultural goods imported from the US. These cuts are offered preferentially to the US alone, not to all World Trade Organization (WTO) partners. Such sweeping tariff cuts—from a country traditionally known for high trade barriers—are rare outside full free trade agreements.