India’s 2025 emission rate to fall but global jump raises warming alarm

Delhi’s putrid air belies the invisible progress that India is making on the climate front, perhaps indicating that more needs to be done.

- S DINAKAR

India, the world’s third biggest polluter on an absolute basis, slashed growth rate in fossil fuel emissions by 65 per cent in 2025 compared to a year earlier.

This was aided partly by a surge in renewable power capacity growth, amid lower demand for electricity because of early monsoon, according to global climate forecasters at the COP 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil.

But a lower rate of emission growth still falls well short of meeting global warming goals.

Emissions from burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas in India increased by 1.4 per cent in 2025 to 3.24 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) from the previous year. This compares to a 4 per cent growth in 2024, according to the Global Carbon Budget (GCB), a leading climate forecaster.

“We project an increase in (emissions from) India of 1.4 per cent,” said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist associated with the emissions study, at a briefing on Thursday at the COP 30 event in Belem.

“That contrasts with a decadal increase of 6 per cent per year, so that’s a good news story.” (Every 1 kg carbon (C) = 3.664 kg carbon dioxide (CO2).

India’s projected growth in CO2 emissions is still higher than the global average growth this year at 1 per cent at 38.9 GtCo2/yr and China's 0.4 per cent, but lower than the US’ 1.9 per cent.

Fossil fuel emissions accounted for 88 percent of global CO2 emissions in 2015-24 and the remaining 12 per cent was from land use changes.