India Holds the Top Spot in Our EM Playbook

Earlier this year, Venugopal Garre, managing director and India head of research at Bernstein, tells Puneet Wadhwa in an email interview that improving macro conditions and lower earnings risk make this a good time to start evaluating bottom-up opportunities in quality midcaps. His December 2025 Nifty target is 26,500. Edited excerpts:

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It has been a choppy year for equities globally. Which camp are you in—the bulls or the bears?

Globally, we expect continued volatility as policy uncertainty remains high, particularly with ongoing US-China trade negotiations and shifting central bank stances. The outcome of these talks will influence near-term US inflation and global currency dynamics, especially as China's excess capacity finds new markets.

We maintain a positive bias on India. Its limited direct trade exposure shields it from some global shocks, and as supply chains diversify away from China, India stands to gain export share over time.

The domestic macro environment is improving. With a supportive base for the next few quarters, we've shifted from last year's caution to a more constructive outlook for Indian equities.

How do you see the bond markets playing out in the US and India?