GLP-1 weightloss drugs’ value growth may fall

India’s fast-growing glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) drug market is likely to witness a sharp rise in volumes but slower value growth as cheaper generics are set to enter the country after semaglutide goes off patent in March 2026, industry executives and doctors said.

- SANKET KOUL

While broader access could expand the patient base, experts also warn of higher therapy discontinuation rates. This comes as more users experience side effects or fail to sustain long-term treatment.

Two global drugmakers— Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly — are currently vying for a larger share of India’s ₹1,109 crore anti-obesity market.

“The GLP-1 category is among the fastest to reach ₹1,000 crore market size within months of launch, largely because of its high pricing,” said Sheetal Sapale, vice-president (commercial) at Pharmarack. However, she added that once the semaglutide patent expires in March next year, prices could drop by as much as 80 per cent, significantly slowing value growth. Sapale said that while price erosion would drive higher consumption, the segment would also face new challenges.

“Volume growth will pick up, but competition will intensify,” she said.