Global headwinds likely to show in IT firms’ earnings

Low growth expected due to uncertainties such as new H-1B rules and US tariffs

- AVIK DAS

Indian information-technology (IT) service providers are likely to report another quarter (July-September) of low, single-digit growth owing to macro uncertainties, chiefly emanating from America, with no respite in sight even in the second half of the year.

While the first few months of the financial year saw no notable deterioration, as called out by the companies in July, things have changed for the worse in the United States — the largest revenue generator for companies such as Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys — ranging from thenewH-1Brulestothe threat of tariffs on outsourcing in general.

That adds fresh concern and perhaps may lead to a tweak in business models.

ICICI Securities in its analysis said Q2FY26 appeared to be a status quo quarter for Tier-I companies with no surprises or shocks, “even as the overhang from direct tariff apprehensions and USD 100k fee imposition on H-1B visas dragged NIFTY IT by 8%. We expect the Tier-I companies to report revenue growth in the range of 0.5-1.5 per cent QoQ CC, with HCLT likely leading the pack,” said Ruchi Mukhija, Seema Nayak, and Aditi Patil in their report on the second-quarter performance of the sector.