From handshake to hardball in six months

Farm red lines, crude oil politics, and a trade deal deadlock push India-US ties into rougher terrain FFS

- SHREYA NANDI

Six months ago, Donald Trump returned to the White House with a familiar promise: To "Make America Great Again". This time, the agenda came with sharper teeth: Tariffs were once again in focus, pitched as a tool to raise revenue, revive domestic manufacturing, and create jobs.

What stood out early was Trump's visible camaraderie with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Just three weeks into Trump's second term, Modi landed in Washington for a high-profile meeting The two leaders announced plans to hammer out the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement by the Fall of 2025, making India the first country to formally enter trade talks with the new administration. In the lead-up, India made goodwill moves-cutting import duties on items like bourbon and scrapping the equalisation levy, both longstanding irritants for Washington.

So when Trump declared April 2 as "Liberation Day" for the US economy and announced country-specific reciprocal tariffs to correct what he called global trade imbalances, Indian officials believed they had a leg up. The logic was simple: India had seized the "first-mover advantage" by initiating trade talks early, and that outreach would help shield it from the worst of US trade action.

That assumption collapsed this week.

In a surprise move, the US administration on July 30 announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports and an unspecified penalty over energy ties with Russia-arguably its harshest stance against any country so far.

On August 4, Washington warned that it would "substantially" raise tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi's "massive" purchases of Russian crude oil.

Despite the early diplomatic overtures, India wasn't spared.

Where it broke down

The tariff blow came after New Delhi and Washington failed to finalise an interim trade deal before the August 1 deadline. Five rounds of intense talks and Trump's own hints of an "imminent" breakthrough didn't result in an agreement.