Ukraine war, Taiwan worries drive weapons push

S President Donald Trump's administration says it continues to work hard to halt fighting in Ukraine, with the US president also saying he has received an undertaking from Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, that China will not attack Taiwan in the current presidential term.

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The reality, however, is that there is a growing expectation fighting will continue in Ukraine, continuing to consume enormous quantities of weaponry. US allies in both Europe and the Pacific continue to worry that Russia or China will launch further land grabs if they believe they can win an easy victory.

The result is a level of arms manufacture unseen in recent years — much of it focused on mass-produced long-range strike systems as well as short-range defensive weapons.

“Speed and scale of manufacture is what governments are looking for” said Mal Crease, founder and CEO of UK maritime drone manufacturer Kraken Technology Group. Kraken says it can produce up to a thousand of its unmanned K3 SCOUT surface craft a year, and this capacity is set to at least double in 2026 thanks to a deal with German shipbuilder NVL.

This week alone has seen the announcement by Taiwan that it is developing a low-budget long-range cruise missile with US autonomous weapons maker Anduril, which has also just signed a US$1.1 billion (35 billion baht) deal to deliver its “Ghost Shark” underwater drone to Australia.

Last week's Defence and Security Equipment International arms fair in east London was among the largest in its history, full of firms hoping to take advantage of rising defence spending both in Europe and worldwide.

The event itself and the preceding weeks saw a host of major announcements, including a deal to sell UK-built antisubmarine frigates to Norway. But it also saw complaints from multiple small and midsize businesses that Britain and other European governments are often too slow in awarding contracts, leaving ambitious startups struggling for cash.

In reality, a divide appears to be emerging between those defence firms that can provide weaponry at scale in a hurry and those that offer services judged somewhat less essential.