Earthquake may bring diplomatic payoff for junta chief

Communication channels closed for 4 years open, write Devjyot Ghoshal and Panu Wongcha-um

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Myanmar’s deadliest natural disaster in years has strengthened the position of ruling general, Min Aung Hlaing, by opening diplomatic channels closed for four years after his junta ousted an elected government to unleash a brutal civil war.

Just before last week’s earthquake of magnitude 7.7 that killed more than 3,000 people, the junta chief was readying for a rare foreign visit to a regional summit in Thailand, as aides worked the phones to arrange meetings with other leaders.

Despite the devastation at home, Min Aung Hlaing arrived on Thursday, ahead of the BIMSTEC grouping’s summit in Bangkok yesterday. The visit, timed just after an outpouring of sympathy following the quake, is a step towards potentially ending his isolation by most world leaders over a war that displaced 3.5 million people and decimated the economy.

“The junta knows that regional powers jostling for influence in Myanmar, like India, China, and Russia would want to use this opportunity to strengthen their own toehold in the country,” said Angshuman Choudhury, an analyst based in Singapore.

“By publicly and directly engaging with regional capitals, it can demonstrate its supposed indispensability as Myanmar’s primary public authority.”

A junta spokesman did not respond to telephone calls to seek comment.

In the days since the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim — conversations that have led to a flurry of international aid.