Big Oil's earnings likely to rise as analysts eye 2026 outlook

Big Oil may see marginally higher oil prices and stronger refining results boost third quarter results after declining earnings over the past year, but some analysts are more interested in how global oil majors set the stage for 2026 when they begin reporting results this week.

- SHEILA DANG SHADIA NASRALLA STEPHANIE KELLY

A crude oil distillation unit under construction at Exxon Mobil's refinery in Beaumont, Texas, in 2022.

(REUTERS)

British oil major Shell and French major TotalEnergies will launch earnings season today and are expected to report 18% and 11% increases in adjusted net income, respectively, compared with the second quarter — though both figures are down from a year ago, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG.

Oil producers have faced a turbulent year marked by unpredictable trade tariffs and increasing oil output from Opec+ countries, which have pushed prices down, leading to some of the lowest earnings since the pandemic. The supply gloom is expected to continue next year as the International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus of 4 million barrels per day with sluggish demand.

Average Brent crude prices during the third quarter declined 13% from the same period last year and were up 2% from the second quarter. Average US natural gas prices in the third quarter declined 12% from last year.