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No one wins this war

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February 10, 2025

AFTER 15 MONTHS OF AGONY, THE Gaza cease-fire comes as a colossal relief not just for Palestinians and Israelis, but also for the wider Middle East. True, the deal is narrow in size and scope. It covers a physical space scarcely bigger than Martha's Vineyard. The actual terms of the first phase of the cease-fire agreement extend no further than a pause in fighting, an exchange of some hostages, and a partial Israeli withdrawal. Given recent precedent, the fragility of Israel's ruling coalition and the yawning gap between the belligerents, this deal is just as likely to collapse, or simply to lapse, as to foster a longer-term peace. Still, even a temporary lowering of the regional heart rate allows for useful reflection.

- MAX RODENBECK

No one wins this war

Perhaps not since the Arab-Israeli war of 1967 has the Mideast puzzle been so swiftly and wholly transformed. In those six days, Israel upended a two-decade-long status quo, shattering Arab dreams, expanding America's role, and making the Jewish State an occupying power over millions of Palestinians.

By contrast, the Gaza crisis has lasted far longer than any previous Arab-Israeli clash. An epidemiological study in the Lancet suggests that 70,000 Palestinians may have been killed, more than three times the total of Israelis killed in every war and terrorist attack since 1948. Even so, Hamas' easy breach of Israeli defenses on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel's loss of 1,200 lives in a single day were an unprecedented shock to the nation. And, as in 1967, the reverberations of the war have reached beyond the immediate parties in unexpected ways.

How so?

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