POLL PLOT

Congress hopes its five guarantees’ will blunt BJP’s aggressive push

- PRATHIMA NANDAKUMAR

WINNING KARNATAKA IS central to the BJP’s plans to make deeper inroads into the south. The saffron party tasted power for the first time in south India in 2008, when B.S. Yediyurappa formed the government in Karnataka, despite falling short of a majority. While a clear majority has been evading the BJP in the assembly polls, it has broken the Congress monopoly in the state and paved the way for alternatives (coalition government). Another significant shift has been the BJP emerging as the preferred party in Parliament elections. Since 2004, when the party bagged 18 of 28 seats, the Congress has been reduced to single-digit results. In 2019, the BJP won 25 seats with a vote share of 52 per cent. The Congress was reduced to just one seat with a vote share of 31.3 per cent, despite its alliance with the JD(S). This time, the BJP has struck an alliance with the JD(S), leaving three seats to its partner.

Last year, the Congress had dethroned the BJP in the assembly polls, winning 135 of 224 seats. The BJP lost even its traditional bastions in the North and Central Karnataka Lingayat belt, while the JD(S) was routed in the Old Mysuru Vokkaliga heartland, which had always backed the regional party. While the Lingayats were unhappy with the BJP about the ouster of Yediyurappa, the Vokkaligas chose the Congress, expecting to see fellow Vokkaliga D.K. Shivakumar as chief minister. It remains to be seen if the same caste considerations would be at play this time as Yediyurappa’s son B.Y. Vijayendra has been made state chief of the BJP, while Shivakumar continues to be locked in a leadership tussle with Chief Minister and Kuruba strongman Siddaramaiah. The possibility of Shivakumar replacing Siddaramaiah after the polls continues to be a talking point.