The Width of the Gulf

The Iran crisis has exposed the fragility of the Gulf's traditional security paradigm while forcing its states to confront a more complex and uncertain strategic environment

- Gurjit Singh

THE Iran crisis places Gulf monarchies in a strategic dilemma, exposing the limits of longstanding security assumptions while intensifying rivalries. For decades, the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman—have relied on a formula: security guaranteed by the United States, economic prosperity anchored in energy exports, and a cautious balancing of regional tensions, adjusting with Israel, anxious about Iran. The current crisis disrupted this equilibrium. Alignment with Washington does not insulate them from conflict; their geography ensures they remain vulnerable to the consequences of confrontation between larger powers. Iran upset their certainty by expanding the crisis horizontally to them.

The dilemma is a perception in Gulf capitals that they are drawn into a conflict not of their making while bearing disproportionate risks. Iran's targeting of facilities linked to US presence shows that hosting such assets can invite attacks. Disruptions to energy infrastructure and economic activity highlight how quickly conflict costs escalate, threatening stability, investor confidence, and vital energy flows. Qatar’s gas exports are almost entirely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. In the conflict, Qatar has had 17 per cent of its gas infrastructure damaged.