Society’s Long COVID

Uncertainty may be the most sure thing post-pandemic, if history is any guide

- BRIAN MICHAEL JENKINS

More than two-and-a-half years after COVID-19 first appeared, the world seems to have unofficially declared the pandemic over and done. It isn’t yet, but with vaccines, antiviral medications and modern medicine, we can resume living our lives. Nevertheless, the effects of COVID will be felt on modern society long after the last PCR or rapid test result comes back positive. In his new book, plagues and their aftermath: how societies recover from pandemics (Melville House), terrorism expert and senior adviser to the president of the RAND Corporation Brian Michael Jenkins takes a look at past plagues—like the Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe, and the 1918 pandemic, which killed between 50 and 100 million people—to try to understand the future. In this adaptation from his book, Jenkins discusses how post-pandemic life will be marked by more than just long-lasting health concerns.

TODAY'S PANDEMIC WILL EVENTUALLY FADE-WE are not sure how or when that will take placebut the normality we knew before will not return. What the post-pandemic world will look like is far from clear. Uncertainty may be its dominant feature. It is therefore important that we think about possible shifts in and potential shocks to our economic structures, political landscape and even mass psychology. Physicians talk about "long COVID," the range of ongoing, recurring or new medical conditions that can appear long after the initial infection: the concept has a broader application to society as a whole. And as we try to process what all this means, history can be a useful tool to help us understand what we might expect in the future.