Canada Could Become a Global Leader in a Hotter World

Canada will weather climate change relatively well. We need to prepare for fallout from countries that don't.

- By Ray Leonard

In 2015, the Paris climate agreement pledged to limit global warming to below 2° C above pre-industrial levels, with a goal of 1.5° C. That’s been the benchmark ever since. This year, it will become clear that it’s unachievable. A recent UN report declared that we will overshoot 1.5° C, and James Hansen, a preeminent American climate scientist, has proclaimed a two-degree outcome “dead.”

A three-degree limit by 2100 is more realistic. Emissions are still growing. Melting permafrost will release inevitable and massive amounts of both CO₂ and methane. Then there are things we can’t control, like a projected increase in solar radiation. Ironically, efforts to reduce air pollution will exacerbate the problem—for years, particulate matter from air pollution blocked sunlight and, to a degree, mitigated warming.

There is good news. Though Canada won’t escape consequences—coastal dislocation, new diseases, crop pests and wildfires—our cold climate will fare relatively well. Canada will become slightly wetter, preserving soil moisture for agriculture. We'll have a longer growing season and, as permafrost melt extends north, more arable land. With greater access to the Arctic, Canada can build northern deepwater ports for exports to Europe and Asia.