HOMELAND BATTLES

AFTER NEARLY 25 YEARS IN POWER, THE BJP NOW FACES A THREECORNERED BATTLE IN GUJARAT. WILL IT HELP OR HURT THE PARTY’S CAUSE, OR COULD THIS ELECTION SPRING A SURPRISE?

- Jumana Shah

On October 10, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sounded a warning bell in his home state Gujarat, cautioning BJP workers about a silent” campaign by the rival Congress in the villages. You need to remain alert in the coming elections. They [the Congress] have adopted a new strategy...they do not speak, but are reaching out in villages, holding meetings,” a wary Modi said in Ahmedabad. A few days later, in a meeting with BJP leaders in Delhi, Union home minister Amit Shah talked about the urgent need to counter the electoral challenge from the Aam Aadmi Party, led by Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. He felt the party could soon occupy the main Opposition space not just in Gujarat but in other states as well. The two red flags raised by the Modi-Shah duo indicate the challenges the saffron party faces in the assembly polls in Gujarat, a state it has ruled uninterruptedly for nearly 25 years. BJP sources say the ambition this time is to beat the 149-seat record out of a total 182) the Congress set in 1985, but then reality plays spoiler—the anti-incumbency of over two decades, infighting among state leaders and absence of a charismatic state leader who can fill the void left by Modi. In 2017, the first election the BJP fought after Modi moved from Gujarat to become prime minister, the saffron party had got a scare—the Congress won 77 seats, the highest in over three decades. Most experts do predict victory for the BJP, but the PM will want nothing less than a win that puts an authoritative stamp on his popularity. In Gujarat, Modi has not hesitated to take tough action to remedy any situation that threatens to undo his legacy. In a snap overhaul in September 2021, the party installed a new chief minister—the third since 2014—and rejigged the entire cabinet.