The Campaign Is Going Great

To Reelect the Extremely Old Man Dragged Down by Inflation and War and Trailing His Criminally Indicted Opponent

- Gabriel Debenedetti

A REPORT FROM BIDEN '24 HEADQUARTERS.

ONE FRIDAY MORNING in November, a handful of Joe Biden's top aides gathered in a Sheraton conference room in Chicago. Alumni of Barack Obama's first presidential bid had descended on the city to celebrate the 15th anniversary of his 2008 victory, and now, after a night of partying, more than 100 of them had rolled out of bed to hear the Biden campaign's leaders detail the effort to get the president a second term.

The audience had reason to be skeptical about 2024, even panicky. The president is old, hobbled by the aftereffects of a big spike in inflation, buffeted by two wars, and starting to trail in polls against an opponent whose grip on the Republican Party seems stronger than ever. An off-cycle Election Day was looming after the weekend. At the Sheraton, the Biden team unveiled a version of the presentation it had been giving to nervous Democrats around the country. Campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez described how Biden's accomplishments, like drug-pricing reform, poll well at least once voters are reminded of the details. Becca Siegel, a senior adviser, spoke about how Biden has a few promising paths to 270 votes in the Electoral College.

The Obama veterans (many of whom also worked for the 2012 campaign and know a bit about reelecting unpopular incumbents) were looking for reassurance. Some were sated, but others were itching for more substance. They pressed the Biden aides for details. How might third-party candidates affect youth turnout? What's your precise understanding of how to reach voters with inscrutable media-consumption habits? Toward the end of the session, Siegel told the room that the election was going to be close no matter what they did. The Sheraton fell silent as she reminded the group that in November 2020, only 45,000 votes in a few states had kept Donald Trump from a second term.