Still chasing 3%

SOUTH AFRICA'S headline consumer price inflation rose slightly to 3.4% year-on-year (YoY) in September, from 3.3% YoY in August, while the monthly change in the consumer price index (CPI) registered 0.2%.

- CASEY SPRAKE

Although the movement appears modest, it underscores a continued balancing act within the inflation basket—with renewed price pressures in some categories offset by disinflationary trends in others.

Inflation accelerated most notably in transport and restaurants & accommodation, whereas food & nonalcoholic beverages (NAB), alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance recorded slower price growth.

The food and NAB category was mixed in September: meat and maize meal prices remained elevated, while milk, eggs, and white rice experienced price declines. These variations reflect a combination of seasonal and structural forces, from lingering supply-side constraints in the livestock industry to easing global grain costs and improving trade flows.

September is typically a busy survey month for Stats SA, with several categories undergoing quarterly price adjustments.

The modest monthly rise in the CPI was primarily driven by housing and utilities, as well as restaurants and accommodation services.

Within the housing category, the quarterly survey of rental costs (a key barometer of underlying demand-side inflation) drew particular attention. After a sluggish post-COVID-19 lockdown recovery, rental inflation trended higher, suggesting gradual normalisation in the residential property market.