Putting Together a Game Plan for 2026

Will what worked in 2025 work next year?

- By Al Kluis

During the last few winters, I have enjoyed speaking at farmer meetings and conferences, from Manitoba to New York, Mexico, and all the way south to Brazil. Often, the organizers get very specific about what they want me to cover. The most interesting topic is the most challenging: laying out a plan for managing risk next year, before the year has even begun.

2025 Market Factors

We start by looking at the four main factors that impacted grain prices in 2025:

• Weather in South America. Brazil and Argentina had favorable weather in the 2024/2025 growing season and produced record corn and soybean crops. This created an early high in all the grain markets.

• Early planting in the U.S. Farmers got off to a fast start, resulting in many more corn acres, fewer soybean acres, and reduced prevent-plant corn acres. Nearly ideal weather through July resulted in high crop ratings and huge yield projections.

• China. Prior to the two countries striking a trade deal in late October, China avoided buying any U.S. soybeans. This was viewed as bearish not only for soybeans but also the entire grain complex.

• The U.S. dollar. In January 2024, the U.S. Dollar Index was at 109 to 110, then started sliding, bottoming just below 97 in July 2025. The combination of the lower dollar and lower CBOT prices resulted in huge export demand. A record amount of corn moved to Mexico.

As a firm, we sold a lot of corn, soybeans, and wheat in January and February 2025. That is when we had really good basis bids, and the revenue per acre was high enough to create an operating profit for most farms. This was the second year cash prices peaked in January and February. The much-hoped-for seasonal rally turned into a bust, with low prices again into August.