ARGUMENTUM A FORTIORI

Recently a circular dated January 13, 2023 was issued by DG Shipping, India, regarding age norms and other qualitative parameters for registration/operation of vessels under the Indian / foreign flag. It raised concerns about the potential impact of age of vessel on the shipping industry.

- Capt. Ramji S Krishnan

Political pressures in the immediate aftermath of a few high optics vessel accidents or detentions push the IMO or other Regulatory Authorities to legislate without considering other means to reduce accidents. Thus, the measures introduced appear good on paper and assist in improving the regulatory body's public image for being proactive and responsive but do very little otherwise.

From a safety standpoint, older ships are more likely to be involved in accidents, particularly those that are more than 20 years old. Further, studies have shown show that the relationship between vessel age and its safety level is negative. As per these studies, vessels between 25 and 30 years old had the highest probability of belonging to the "always deficient" category. Another study found that the vessel's age has a significant effect on casualties.

It is pertinent to note that these studies are somewhat dated and a few issues need to be reconsidered prior to coming to a firm conclusion regarding the age - accident relationship. The correlation between the age of ships and marine accidents is often complex.

Research highlights other factors contributing to accidents such as, vessel condition, low frequency of inspection, the experience / training of the crew, weather conditions at the time of the accident etc. As is the usual norm, the devil is often in the details. Thus, it might be prudent not to jump to the conclusion that safety of ships depends on their age. We discuss below citing references.

Study 1

One study looked in-depth at a total dataset containing three sub-datasets. The total dataset accounted for about 130,000 vessels, including about 10,000 lost vessels and 120,000 existing vessels. Thus, the datasets accounted for more than 90% of the worldwide commercial fleet.