Global oil demand ‘springs back’ with vigour despite headwinds ahead

Driven by Asian demand and summer travel, oil consumption rebounds sharply in 2025, but experts caution slow-growth forecasts may understate the recovery’s strength amid non-OECD resilience and surprisingly tight markets

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THE global oil market has experienced a pronounced recovery in 2025, with consumption springing back from pandemic sluggishness and combating economic uncertainties.

Buoyed by renewed summer travel, resurgent Asian refining, and unanticipated non-OECD strength, oil demand appears decidedly more robust than most forecasts suggest.

While established agencies expect moderate expansion, growing signs hint that those projections may underplay a faster, more sustained rebound; and that a true peak in oil consumption may be further away than anticipated.

Oil demand in the first half of 2025 has surprised many. Forecasts initially suggested modest growth of just 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, the weakest since 2009, excluding the Covid-affected 2020.

Yet actual data indicates that in Q1 alone, demand rose by nearly 990,000 bpd year-on-year, marking the strongest start since post-pandemic recovery periods.

Seasonal drivers are also evident: global refinery runs jumped by 1.7 million bpd in June, with another 2 million bpd expected in July and August, pushing capacity to roughly 85.4 million bpd.

Meanwhile, price and inventory signals support the rebound thesis. US crude stocks fell by over 3 million barrels in late July, indicating sustained consumption, while summer trading developments helped Brent rise to approximately $69 per barrel.

Ongoing disruptions in Iraq and tight spot markets have kept global benchmark prices hovering around $70.

Despite trade-related headwinds and tariff concerns, oil demand has appeared surprisingly resilient.

Industry analysts trimmed 2025 growth expectations slightly in June, but the numbers still indicate a historically moderate expansion.

Inventory draws and firm refinery runs suggest that actual consumption is outpacing these conservative forecasts.

NON-OECD MARKETS & ASIA POWER THE BOUNCE